re:Think Games: May 1 Esports Industry Observations
Yesterday, I shared my perspective that esports is like Track and Field. But I realize this morning I need to back up a step. It helps to understand the idea that esports is not one game, on one platform. However, there are a whole variety of things that make esports challenging to wrap your head around. Perhaps one of the most important is the way technology mixes up the whole ecosystem.
I think the best way to look at this is to start with the fundamentals of human behavior. I’m going to skip over what makes something a sport, and go after what turns competition into a business? After all, we play games all the time and very very few become industries and have professional players. So let’s follow the simple logic of human competition and the spectator.
- People like to compete with other people.
- People will compete at different levels.
- Competition can draw an audience when the audience members are knowledgeable enough to “project” the outcome of the competition
- The highest levels of competition draw the largest audiences.
- Large audiences can be monetized in a variety of ways.
- Monetization creates “professional competitors”.
- The professionalization of competitors coupled with the monetization of viewership creates a market.
- When audiences are willing to watch a variety of similar competitions thus monetizing multiple companies this creates an industry.
You following me so far? It is the co-rise of the audience and the competition that creates the industry. But why do people watch?
Human competition triggers the storytelling that comes when we have the capacity to project what could happen, but we can’t tell for certain what will happen. Not knowing creates suspense. It is the same emotion that propels a good story and holds our attention. Like a missing puzzle piece, it will keep us engaged until the problem is solved. What Malcolm Gladwell explained very well in his master course is that when we know what we don’t know, that builds suspense. Think of the murder mystery. Someone is dead. Someone must have killed them. But who? We know what we don’t know. All great sports competition boils down to the same story. The irresistible force meets the immovable object. There must be a winner. But who? We know what we don’t know. As Jane McGonigal observed in her fantastic book, “Reality is Broken” comparing our projections against reality is an endlessly fascinating activity.
However, simply projecting isn’t enough. Tim Ferriss in his excellent blog post about learning new skills fast explained what it took for him to get into Basketball. He needed an understanding of the skills involved so he could begin to see the contest playing out on the court. He needed a minimal viable vocabulary to allow him to project the contest. A strange and confusing set of grown men sprinting back and forth bouncing an orange ball became a kinesthetic dance of elite athletes.
Any competition that you have the capacity to project an outcome, has the potential to hold your interest. Any competition where you understand the underlying skills can unlock your vision to see the beauty of the human spirit at play.
In traditional sports, the physical nature of the play constrains how the competitors and audience to each other, and with each other and thus shapes the whole industry. With esports, however, technology can and has removed physical barriers creating entirely new ways of creating, connecting, and consuming human competition. Esports is confusing because in many ways the industry shatters traditional paradigms for how human competition is organized, conducted, and monetized.
Over the last several years, I have been trying to understand this dynamic looking for opportunities to not only participate but add and create value.